The US Dollar dropped to its lowest point in a year against a basket of currencies on Tuesday after broad gains stocks brought a return of risk appetite.  Trading volume was markedly higher as investors returned from their vacations and began to assess the happenings of recent weeks.

The Dollars fall was also sparked by the rise in commodity prices such as gold which traded above $1000 for the first time since February.  Concerns over the USD’s status as the reserve currency were also a factor as a report by the United Nations which called for a new World Reserve System diminished the demand for the Dollar.

 at 11:15PM GMT, the Us Dollar was trading down 1.14% to the Euro to 1.4494, down 1% to the Japanese Yen to 92.23, down 1% to the Sterling to 1.6494, up .07% to the Canadian Dollar to 1.0785, down .8% to the Australian Dollar to .8622, down .5% to the New Zealand Dollar to .6959 and down 1.4% to the Swiss Franc to 1.0463 

The US Dollar dropped to its lowest point in a year against a basket of currencies on Tuesday after broad gains stocks brought a return of risk appetite.  Trading volume was markedly higher as investors returned from their vacations and began to assess the happenings of recent weeks.

The Dollars fall was also sparked by the rise in commodity prices such as gold which traded above $1000 for the first time since February.  Concerns over the USD’s status as the reserve currency were also a factor as a report by the United Nations which called for a new World Reserve System diminished the demand for the Dollar.

At 11:15PM GMT, the Us Dollar was trading down 1.14% to the Euro to 1.4494, down 1% to the Japanese Yen to 92.23, down 1% to the Sterling to 1.6494, up .07% to the Canadian Dollar to 1.0785, down .8% to the Australian Dollar to .8622, down .5% to the New Zealand Dollar to .6959 and down 1.4% to the Swiss Franc to 1.0463

The Australian Dollar has been stellar in the past few months, and I have made no secret of my love for this currency. But, it is the US Dollar that has now caught my eye as the most lucrative trade, whichever currency it is paired up with, if you happen to be on the short side of things you have been doing quite well.  Even against the pathetic Sterling the Dollar has been losing and I do not foresee this changing anytime soon.

One reason for this is the new development out of the United Nations, which openly called for a “new World Reserve” currency system – a new world order of things if you will.  Now, keep in mind the UN has not been a fan of the US for some time now, despite the US paying most of its bills and being a staunch supporter of most of its social programs such as UNESCO and UNICEF.  The world hates the top dog and if it were not for the veto power the US holds, I know there would be much more open criticism and dare I say, sanctions, against the world’s largest economy. 

But the announcement from the UN comes on the heels of President Obama deciding that he will be the first sitting US president to chair the all powerful (I am being cynical here) Security Council.  In a gesture meant to help bridge the gap between the impression the world has on the “stuck-up” and “maverick” United States, the President wants to approach the world stage with an open hand and show that we can all work together.  Now, I will bet that this move has less to do with nuclear proliferation than it does the UN’s call yesterday – but I am not qualified to make such an accusation.

In the online Forex marketplace we have seen the Dollar start its collapse.  China, which had kept mum on its concerns over the Dollar for a few months, is also back into the picture.  Speculation is that their $2 Trillion Dollars in USD reserves is being liquidated quietly and relocated to gold – which would explain the sudden increase in the shiny commodity.  Aside from this, they are also becoming vocal once more, sending a top Communist party official to the media using words like “dismayed” to describe how they feel about the US’s free use of the Treasury printing presses to cover their bills. 

Cheng Siwei, a top leader in China told the UK’s Daily Telegraph that Beijing was being compelled to redesign its foreign currency reserve policy.  No doubt this is having a grave affect on the USD  and it is the reason why I believe that no matter what the data shows about a recovery, the USD is destined for a downward trend in the coming few months.  China does not do things half assed, and you can bet that this is not the last we will hear about discontent from the US’s largest lender.  The season is ripe for a controversy – its September, and historically it has not been a good month for the USD – my bet is that this will be one of the worst on record.  Sit back and short – you won’t be sorry you did.

Today, however, the Bank confirmed that it is considering making such a move and GBP took an enormous hit versus the broader market, swooning all the way back below 1.6500 vs. the USD and sending EUR/GBP to a new since June. 

The purpose of such a move is to jump start lending by the banks, who are hoarding capital as they try to repair their balance sheets and all manner of ugly assets they still contain. The very weak sterling yesterday came with very little to no news flow and one has to wonder if someone was in the know beforehand – very suspicious.

In any case, the pound has been very consistent inthe Forex market in reacting to every move from the BoE during this part of the cycle.

Let’s see if EUR/GBP pays any to the 200-day moving average up around 0.8885, just above today’s high thus far.. This sell-off in GBP/USD has been rather damaging to the up-trend – see more in today’s chart. Meanwhile, the RICS House Price Balance number was far better than expected and suggested that more estate agents are seeing rising rather than falling prices in the housing market.

The RBA statements at its last meeting at the beginning of this month were far less hawkish than expected, suggesting that an October hike the market was trying to price in was somewhat premature. The minutes released overnight confirm that the RBA’s trigger finger is less than itchy at the moment, as it sought to avoid “premature tightening”.

It is a bit surprising to see AUD not biting a bit more to the downside on this story and recent, less than inspiring data from the Australian economy. It looks like Aussie traders are following the moves in risk appetite in equities (scratched to new highs yesterday) and gold, which has recently topped the 1000-dollar an ounce mark.

The Fed’s Yellen was out with a rather dour speech about the economy and warned that deflation risk was greater than inflation risk. She recommended that the administration do more to support job growth. Meanwhile, Obama is going a bit out on a limb by declaring that the job losses are “bottoming out” .  Meanwhile, the treasury is considering unloading its share of Citibank for a significant profit (if it can get current market prices). Now if that isn’t a signal that the rally in equities has moved too far, we’d like to know what is?

The German ZEW was uninspiring, with the current conditions part of the index still rather gruesome, even if the expectations part of the survey notched a marginal new high for the cycle. This survey is symptomatic of the kind of hope that is out there for a strong recovery and suggest show much optimism is already priced in here. The expectations component has topped out around 70 three times in the last ten years, so we are already most of the way to the “top” after bottoming out at a remarkable -60 in October of 2008. It’s great if reality turns out to be so rosy, but scary to contemplate the disappointment if the future proves more humdrum.

The US data was far stronger than expected in the headlines and saw the paradoxical re3action of the USD heading weaker after the data (USD moving in inverse correlation with risk appetite, bla bla….), though not convincingly. This is getting a bit silly – if the US is really in recovery mode, then this should eventually be a positive for the dollar.

Looking at the internals of the retail sales data, it looks like much of the strength outside of Autos and Gas was due to back to school shopping (strength in clothing, general merchandise, book and sporting goods stores). The US PPI rose more than expected and bonds are selling off heavily, boosting USD/JPY to new highs on the day. The JPY will be very sensitive to any further sell-off in fixed income. 91.75/92.00 looks like a key area of resistance for that pair.

More Forex Trading Analysis: Moody’s came back yesterday to haunt the British Treasury.  Nearly six months after the rating agency lowered the rating on the sovereign nations debt, they came back yesterday with a warning that the country will be in negative territory for the next year to year and a half.  With all the whispering about the true state of the UK economy, publicly seen as stabilizing while privately seen as fledgling, the independent auditors at Moody’s has seemingly undermined political efforts to paint a brighter picture.

The result of this effort was a drop across the board in the Sterling, which has not performed as bad as it could have been after the parliamentary corruption scandal of the early summer.  In fact, British lawmakers have been scarcely seen on television or the newspapers for that matter, keeping a low profile to avoid any further scrutiny that could bring back the calls for a House of Commons overhaul.  To this end, even the Exchequer, Alistair Darling and Prime Minister Gordon Brown have been less than visible since the scandal – only talking when necessary and not really saying much when they do.

It should not come as a surprise that Moody’s found the British economy in bad shape and is forecasting a bleak immediate future.  With record unemployment, manufacturing and exports down to 50 year lows, cost of basic goods rising considerably and increasing poverty at the middle class level, it is a given that they are in trouble.  However, the opinion I hold on the fate of the Sterling in relationship to the current economic climate is bold, by any accounts, and contradictory to the Moody’s report.  Here is why:

I believe that the Sterling is one of the most fairly valued currencies in the Forex Trading Market out there at this moment because of Gold.  The UK spent hundreds of years pillaging and plundering the nations of the world for every natural resource it could find, especially Gold.  So the past 60 years has seen the Brits give back the land they occupied, the deals did not include the treasures.  The UK has by far one of the largest collections of Gold reserves, next to the Vatican of course, and the price of this precious metal has been on the rise topping $1000 per ounce last week.

Even if the economy spends another two years in depression, the value of the Sterling can be stable based on their reserves.  I am not a fan of the British economic policies and I do believe that the ease in which they have gone about spending citizen funds on bailouts has contributed to their situation, but I must respect the almighty Sterling – it has for a long time, and will for a long time to come, be worth every penny (or should I say quid?).